Cycle Time Analytics

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  • Cycle time analytics
    • Models change nature of discussion
      • Based on numbers
    • Scrum / Kanban don’t go to Cone of Uncertainty
      • As uncertainty is reset at the end of each “sprint”
    • What about no historical data
      • Weibull distribution
      • Just use min & max cycle times
      • Has been within 7%
    • Book: How to measure anything
    • Book: The Principles of Product Development Flow
    • LeanKit has this in it
    • Using monte-Carlo simulation on measured cycle time and WIP
    • Create simple model to run simulations to perform forecast
      • Can give you a basis for diagnosis
    • Central limit theory
    • Book: The Flaw of Averages
    • Forecast
      • Estimate
        • Within a stated uncertainty
    • Estimate or #NoEstimate
      • 70% chance you need to forecast
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